Projects
Select Current Projects
A selection of ongoing projects, please see Publications page for a full list of previous and in-progress papers and projects. My work falls into the following (overlapping) categories:
Climate Change Economics
Risk, Uncertainty Analysis, and Sensitivity Analysis
Integrated Assessment Modeling and Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
Software Engineering & Development
Usability and Design of Embedded Domain Specific Languages
Exploring the structural uncertainty of integrated assessment models, sensitivity analysis, and decision-making under the conditions of such uncertainty.
Rennels, L., Errickson, F., Keller, K., Parthum, B., Smith, D., and Anthoff, A. Considering Robustness to Deep Uncertainties Drives More Rapid Emissions Reductions.. In Progress.
Structural Uncertainty of IAMs
A 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency, and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Using the GIVE model we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source GIVE model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared to estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.
Programming tools are increasingly integral to research and analysis in myriad domains, including specialized areas with no formal relation to computer science. Embedded domain-specific languages (eDSLs) have the potential to serve these programmers while placing relatively light implementation burdens on language designers. However, barriers to eDSL use reduce their practical value and adoption. In this paper, we aim to deepen our understanding of how programmers use eDSLs and identify user needs to inform future eDSL designs. We performed a contextual inquiry (9 participants) with domain experts using Mimi, an eDSL for climate change economics modeling. A thematic analysis identified five key themes, including: the interaction between the eDSL and the host language has significant and sometimes unexpected impacts on eDSL user experience, and users preferentially engage with domain-specific communities and code templates rather than host language resources. The needs uncovered in our study offer design considerations for future eDSLs and suggest directions for future DSL usability research.
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Integrated Assessment Models
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) can be used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC), an economic metric that has been employed extensively to inform a wide range of climate policy decisions. Discussion and implementation of IAM results historically focuses on central tendencies of the outcome variables of interest, namely the social cost of carbon and associated temperature increase and damages, yet policy makers and scientists alike are increasingly calling for more robust and formal discussion of the probabilistic characteristics of IAMs. This ongoing work applies state of the art global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Sobol analysis, to these models to inform a range of research questions.
Mimi is next generation computational platform for Integrated Assessment Modeling developed in connection with Resources for the Future's Social Cost of Carbon Initiative and used widely in climate economics research. Written in Julia, this platform uses a macro-based domain specific language for certain parts of teh framework, while at the same time exposing the full power of the Julia language to users in order to fit a variety of design constraints.
Jupyter meets the Earth: Enabling discovery in geoscience through interactive computing at scale
In this project we intend to follow the patterns that have made Jupyter an effective and successful platform: we will drive the development of computational machinery by concrete use cases from our own experience and research needs, and then find the appropriate points for extension, abstraction, and generalization. We are motivated to advancing research of contemporary importance in geoscience, and are equally committed to producing work that leads to broad impact, general use infrastructure that benefits scientists, educators, industry, and the general community.
Consulting
Various independent consulting positions focused on climate economics and the social cost of carbon, integrated assessment modeling, and software engineering:
For Terra.do: Co-design and teach a 6-week online course entitled Climate Change for Software Engineers.
For University of California, Santa Cruz on project for University of California Office of the President (UCOP): Serve as an expert consultant and technical lead for developing a social cost of carbon for use within the UC System.
For Industrial Economics Inc. under Dr. Brent Boehlert: I work on a range of projects evaluating the physical and economic impacts of climate change with the goal of informing mitigation and adaptation planning.